Hardest-to-Find Toys for Christmas 2026: What's Scarce and What to Buy Instead

By the RestockPal team · Updated October 18, 2026 · 14 min read

We check every price and date against the store or maker. Some links are affiliate links: if you buy, we may earn a commission at no cost to you.

If you are hunting for the hardest-to-find toys for Christmas 2026, the short list is this: the PS5 Pro, the Zelda 40th Anniversary Switch 2, the iPhone Duo, the NeeDoh advent calendar, and Pokémon's 30th Celebration boxes. Most of the rest of the toy aisle is easier than the headlines make it sound. This guide sorts the scarce from the merely popular, with list prices, where to look, and an easier gift to fall back on. It is one chapter of our 2026 holiday gift guide.

How we picked this list

We did not guess. We started with the published 2026 toy lists from the places that sell and review toys, then checked which of those items actually look scarce right now.

• Target released Bullseye's Top 50 toys on October 5, starting at $4.99, with more than half exclusive to Target.
• Amazon published its 2026 Top 100+ Toys list on September 9, with 15 toys under $15.
• The Toy Insider released its 21st annual gift guide on September 23: 400 toys from more than 190 toymakers, with a "Hot 20" at the top.
• Macy's and Toys"R"Us put out Geoffrey's Top Toy List in September, but the public write-up names brands rather than specific toys, so we used it lightly.
• Walmart did not publish an official Top Toys release that we could find this year, so we only looked at its online "top toys" page, which changes often.

Then we added what we track. The RestockPal catalog covers NeeDoh, Labubu and Pop Mart, LEGO, Pokémon cards, consoles, and a few single toys. We are not going to quote you demand numbers or "most wanted" counts. We would rather tell you what the news and the stores say, and where we see something is scarce, say how we know.

One more honest point. A toy being on a hot list does not make it hard to find. Plenty of list toys, like Tickle Me Elmo, are listed at several big retailers. We call something hard to find only when there is a specific reason: sold out at the maker, drawings or invitations at retailers, or backorders.

Why prices are higher this year

If gifts feel more expensive, you are not imagining it. A Reuters report on October 15 said toy prices were up 6.6% over the past year, and up 4.2% from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Reuters credits tariffs, plus higher energy, commodity and shipping costs tied to the conflict with Iran.

Executives quoted in that report were blunt about it. Basic Fun's CEO said tariffs "add a noticeable cost to toys and other goods," and Mattel's CFO expects "moderate inflationary pressures." Hasbro's CFO said the company absorbed higher input costs.

There is one bit of relief. Per coverage from LiveNOW from FOX, the U.S. and China agreed in late September to lower tariffs on about $30 billion of goods each way, including toys from China. That is an agreement, not a price cut you can see on a shelf yet.

What about shortages? The Reuters report does not describe a general toy shortage, and we found no other report of one. The scarcity in this guide is product by product. Keep that in mind, because it means most of your list is probably fine, and a few items need a plan.

Also plan for New Jersey sales tax: 6.625% on most toys and electronics. Clothing is exempt, which is why a hoodie costs the same at the register as on the tag. A $499.99 console is closer to $533 out the door.

NeeDoh and Labubu

NeeDoh

Why it is scarce. NeeDoh is the squishy toy that went viral on TikTok. Per a TrackaLacker interview recap from April, the Schylling CEO said the company sold an entire year's worth of inventory in the first nine weeks of 2026. Schylling's own site, when we checked in October, carried a banner saying demand is "exceptionally high" and that it was pausing new orders, with no date to resume.

List price. Most single NeeDohs in our catalog run about $4.49 to $5.99, such as the Nice Cube at $5.99 and Cool Cats at $4.49. The 2026 Squishmas Advent Calendar is the standout. Listings we saw ranged from about $28 to $35, but Schylling has not confirmed a list price, so treat that as a rough range.

Where to look. Target, Walmart (sold by Walmart itself), Staples, and Schylling's Amazon storefront are the sellers TrackaLacker recommends. The advent calendar has been an invitation-request item on Amazon at $29.99, per Yahoo Shopping in mid-September. Third-party sellers on Walmart.com have listed it at $220 to $255. Please do not pay that.

Easier alternative. Any single NeeDoh in a stocking is a win, and the Teenie multipacks at $7.99 are the cheapest way to give four. Our NeeDoh Christmas guide goes deeper on which ones to pick.

A safety note while you shop: the CPSC issued an alert on August 5 about fake and counterfeit squishy toys, and said it identified 55 violative shipments at ports (355,683 units stopped). The advice is simple. Buy from a seller you know, be suspicious of bargains, and never microwave or heat a squishy.

Labubu and Pop Mart

Why it is scarce, or is not. This one is mostly easier than last year. One October analysis reported that Labubu supply flooded the market after the 2025 craze, and that overseas online sales fell sharply while store sales grew. That is a single source, so take it as a direction rather than a number, but it matches what we would tell a parent: a regular Labubu blind box is no longer the impossible gift it was.

List price. Our catalog lists blind boxes from $26.99 to $29.99, such as the Cat Mode On series, and $36.99 for the Hello Kitty collaboration. Pop Mart's U.S. site currently shows items in the Cat Mode On series from $12.99 (a fridge magnet) up to $29.99, and a Monsters Shake A Drink handheld at $49.99 launching October 22 at 8 p.m.

Where to look. Pop Mart's U.S. Instagram (per its profile summary) says online drops are at 8 p.m. Eastern, typically Thursdays, and in-store releases are at 10 a.m. on Fridays. The only Pop Mart store in New Jersey that we know of is at American Dream in East Rutherford, based on a September 2025 report, so call before you drive. The pricier figures, like the Original Ver.3 at $159.99, are a different purchase; we have not confirmed how hard they are to get.

Easier alternative. A single blind box from a mainstream series, or a mini bag charm at around $28. For a deeper look at blind boxes and fakes, see our Labubu guide for parents. Fakes are a real issue: ABC7 reported that authentic ones have a holographic Pop Mart sticker, a scannable QR code, and nine teeth.

Pokémon cards and the big toy-aisle names

Pokémon cards

Why it is scarce. It is Pokémon's 30th anniversary, and the Celebration products are the hard part. Retailers are managing demand with drawings and invitations. Walmart runs a weekly Wednesday drawing, with entry in a window of about an hour and winners chosen at random. Amazon has listed the 30th Celebration Elite Trainer Box at $89.99 by invitation only.

List price. We cannot give you one price for the 30th Celebration box. We found $69.99 in some listings and $89.99 on Amazon's list, and no one source explains the gap. Our catalog shows the upcoming Delta Reign ETB at $49.99 at regular retail and $59.99 at Pokémon Center. Mega Evolution Delta Reign goes on sale November 6, with prerelease events starting October 24 at participating stores.

Where to look. Target, Walmart drawings, and local card shops. For the standard Delta Reign ETB, watch the November 6 release date; a regular set may be easier to find than the anniversary products, though we cannot promise that. Skip anything priced far above list. GMA's roundup showed a $159.95 Walmart listing for the 30th ETB that looks like marketplace pricing.

Easier alternative. A smaller product: a mini tin, a booster bundle, or a battle deck. Pokémon's own October list includes a Deck Crafter's Collection on October 23 and a 30th Celebration Battle Deck on October 30. Our Pokémon cards guide covers these in detail.

Pikachu Puppetronic and Tickle Me Elmo

These two are on Target's list, and both are on the Toy Insider's Hot 20. The Pikachu Puppetronic is an interactive plush; our catalog lists it at $79 and Amazon's list shows $79.99. Tickle Me Elmo Giggle Max is $39.99 at Target and $39.92 at Amazon and Walmart per TODAY.

We cannot say either is sold out. Treat them as popular, not scarce. If you want one, buy it in the next few weeks rather than the last few days, since popular toys do get thin in December. The Elmo page will tell you what we know.

Tumblers, briefly

If a teen asked for an Owala, note that the first Owala x Target holiday drop landed October 18, with eight colorways. The 24 oz FreeSip is $29.99 and the 30 oz Sway is $34.99. Mashable calls it the first of several drops, so there is more to come. NJ.com reported on October 12 that Stanley had quietly revealed a 42-piece holiday collection, with some popular pieces already sold out. We have not confirmed a Target-exclusive Stanley holiday line.

LEGO and Toy Story 5

LEGO, including sets about to retire

Why it is scarce. LEGO does not run out of everything. The issue is retirement: according to Brick Fanatics' list as updated October 13, hundreds of sets are expected to retire on December 31, 2026. Retiring sets get thin in December, then move to resellers at higher prices. Brick Fanatics also notes that retirement dates change often, so treat them as "probably."

List price and examples. The Millennium Falcon Ultimate Collector Series (75192) is $849.99 and the Nightmare Before Christmas set (21351) is $199.99; both are on the expected-to-retire list. Our catalog also tracks the Willy Wonka Chocolate Factory (21360) at $219.99, the Donkey Kong Arcade (72051) at $199.99, and the Rebel U-wing (75399) at $69.99. We have not confirmed retirement dates for those last three.

Where to look. LEGO.com, Target, Walmart, and Barnes & Noble. If a set sells out at one, check another before you panic.

Easier alternative. A smaller set in the same theme. Our retiring LEGO guide lists family-friendly picks from $9.99 to $69.99, including Minecraft, Friends and Super Mario sets. Paying list price for a retiring set is already a good deal, so you do not need to wait for a sale.

Toy Story 5

Why it is scarce. Mostly it is not. Mattel makes the main line, with about 50 items in its shop, and these are mass-market toys that usually come back in stock. The exception is LEGO: when we checked the LEGO.com Toy Story page, the Toy Story Celebration Train & RC Car and the Alien with Pizza Planet Rocket Ride were on backorder, and the train was marked as retiring soon.

List price. The LEGO Toy Story sets run from $39.99 to $59.99 for the kid-friendly ones; the Slinky Dog Bookends, at $149.99, are for ages 18+. Disney Store's list includes a 15-inch talking Jessie at $39.99.

Where to look. Mattel, Disney Store, Target, Walmart and Amazon (sold by Amazon). Our Toy Story 5 gift guide has the whole lineup. Buy batteries ahead for the talking and remote-control toys.

Consoles and tech

PlayStation 5 Pro

Why it is scarce. This is the clearest hard-to-find item of the season. On October 18, Sony's own PlayStation Direct page listed the PS5 Pro as "Currently Unavailable," and The Shortcut reported on October 12 that it has become increasingly hard to find at retail price. Demand is likely getting a boost from GTA VI, which launches November 19.

List price. $899.99 after Sony's price increase in April ($899 on PlayStation Direct). The same pattern shows up in the used market: GameStop raised pre-owned PS5 Pro prices on October 6, to $1,399.99 for the digital model.

Where to look. PlayStation Direct (The Shortcut calls it the most reliable for restocks), Best Buy, GameStop, Target and Walmart. A report from PlayStation LifeStyle, citing a German outlet, says the shortage may last into early 2027. That is a secondhand claim from a leaked memo and not a Sony statement. Our PS5 Pro guide has the full picture.

Easier alternative. Honestly, a different console. We could not confirm that the standard PS5 is easy to buy, because Sony's page showed those as unavailable too. A game gift card or a game on its own is safer.

Nintendo Switch 2

Why it is scarce, or is not. The standard Switch 2 is not reported as short. The price went from $449.99 to $499.99 on September 1, per Nintendo. The scarce one is the Zelda 40th Anniversary Edition, which is expected October 29 at $519.99 (Nintendo Life), and was sold out at most retailers. Best Buy plans midnight openings at select stores on November 5 with limited quantities.

Easier alternative. The Mario Kart World bundle at $549.99, or the Switch Sports Resort bundle at $529.99, which arrives October 22. See our Switch 2 holiday guide for details.

iPhone Duo

Apple's first foldable opened for pre-order on October 16 at $1,999 for the 256 GB model, with an official launch on October 23. CBS News reported that within minutes, delivery estimates slipped into next year, with some backordered to late January 2027. We would not promise anyone a Duo by Christmas. If a teen or spouse wants one, you can follow our iPhone Duo page for reported sightings. The honest backup is an IOU, covered below. If the budget is smaller, AirPods Pro 3 are $249 in our catalog, though we could not confirm any holiday shortage for AirPods.

The whole list at a glance

When to give up and give an IOU

There is a point where chasing becomes the gift. Here is how we would decide.

1. Set a date. Pick a day, such as December 10, after which you stop hunting. For online orders, remember that the U.S. Postal Service recommends December 17 for Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail, December 18 for Priority Mail, and December 19 for Priority Mail Express.
2. Set a ceiling. Decide in advance that you will not pay more than list plus a small amount. If the PS5 Pro is $899, a $1,300 listing is a no.
3. Avoid the marketplace trap. A seller you cannot check, a price far from list, and a "ships in 3 weeks" promise are three red flags. Our guide to beating resellers explains how to tell a fair listing from a bad one.
4. Switch to a gift card or an IOU. Wrap a printed note with a photo of the item, for example "Your PS5 Pro is on its way, and we are watching for it." Kids are generally fine with a short wait when they know it is real. A gift card to the right store works for older kids who want to pick the exact thing.
5. Know the return windows. Amazon allows returns on items bought November 1 through December 31 until January 31, 2027, with Apple products until January 15. Walmart lists most items bought October 1 through December 31 as returnable until January 31. We could not confirm Target's 2026 policy.

Black Friday is November 27 and Cyber Monday is November 30. As of October 16, Amazon, Walmart, Target and Best Buy had not announced their 2026 Black Friday dates, so any date you see on a deal site is a guess. Scarce items rarely go on sale anyway. A markdown on a soft-selling toy is far more likely.

A last New Jersey tip: if you plan to shop in person in Bergen County on a Sunday, know that the Paramus malls, including Garden State Plaza, are closed on Sundays. American Dream in East Rutherford has been open for retail on Sundays, and a court case about that is still pending as of June, so we cannot say how it ends. Check the mall's hours before you go.

FAQ

What are the hardest toys to find for Christmas 2026?

The PS5 Pro, the Zelda 40th Anniversary Switch 2, and the iPhone Duo are the toughest. Pokémon 30th Celebration boxes and the NeeDoh Squishmas Advent Calendar come next. Most other holiday toys are not reported as short.

Is there a general toy shortage in 2026?

We found no report of one. The October 15 Reuters report on toy prices does not describe a general shortage, but it says toy prices are up 6.6% over the past year. The scarcity is limited to specific products.

Is Labubu still hard to find?

Less than in 2025. Reporting in October says supply increased after the 2025 craze. We have not confirmed how scarce the pricier limited figures are.

How much should I pay for the NeeDoh advent calendar?

Listings we saw ranged from about $28 to $35, though Schylling has not confirmed a list price. Third-party listings of $220 to $255 on Walmart.com are well above that. Wait for a store restock instead.

Will the PS5 Pro be in stock before Christmas?

We cannot promise it. Sony's own store showed it as unavailable on October 18, and a report says the shortage could last into early 2027. The Shortcut calls PlayStation Direct the most reliable place for restocks so far.

Should I wait for Black Friday to buy hard-to-find toys?

Not for the scarce ones. Black Friday is November 27, but the big retailers had not announced their sale dates as of mid-October, and sold-out items rarely get discounts. Buy at list price when you see it.

What should I do if I cannot find the gift?

Give an IOU with a photo of the item, or a gift card to the right store, and keep watching. Amazon and Walmart both list holiday return windows into late January.

Does New Jersey tax toys?

Yes. Most toys and electronics are subject to the 6.625% New Jersey sales tax. Clothing and footwear are exempt.

Looking for the full set of picks by age and budget? Head back to our 2026 holiday gift guide. And if one of the items above is on your list, you can track it free in the RestockPal app, where nearby parents report what they see on shelves.

Sources

1. Target Releases Bullseye's Top 50 Must-Have Toys (2026-10-05)
2. Amazon's 2026 Top 100+ Toys list (2026-09-09)
3. The Toy Insider Reveals Its 2026 Holiday Gift Guide (2026-09-23)
4. Macy's and Toys R Us unveil Geoffrey's Top Toy List (GottaDEAL) (2026-09-09)
5. US toy prices surge ahead of holiday shopping season as tariffs, Iran war bite (Reuters) (2026-10-15)
6. Holiday toy prices, tariffs and war (LiveNOW from FOX) (2026-10-15)
7. NeeDoh sold out everywhere: buying guide 2026 (TrackaLacker) (April 2026)
8. Schylling NeeDoh product page (order-pause banner) (October 2026)
9. The viral NeeDoh advent calendar is still available (Yahoo Shopping) (mid-September 2026)
10. Walmart.com NeeDoh advent calendar listings (third-party prices) (October 2026 snapshot)
11. CPSC warns about fake and counterfeit squishy toys (2026-08-05)
12. Pop Mart US new arrivals (October 2026)
13. Pokemon, Sanrio and Hello Kitty: what they know about scarcity (IIAS) (2026-10-06)
14. Labubu warning: fake Lafufu dolls (ABC7) (2025-08-18)
15. Where to buy Labubu in New Jersey (Asbury Park Press via Yahoo) (2025-09-04)
16. Every Pokemon TCG product release in October 2026 (2026-10-01)
17. Pokemon TCG release dates (Polkastarter) (2026-10-02)
18. Pokemon 30th anniversary TCG Walmart drawing, Sept 30 (SheKnows) (2026-09-30)
19. Top trending toys 2026 (Good Morning America) (2026-09-22)
20. Hottest toys 2026 (TODAY) (October 2026)
21. Owala brand-new holiday collection (Parade) (2026-10-16)
22. Stanley 42-piece holiday collection (NJ.com) (2026-10-12)
23. Every LEGO set retiring this year and beyond (Brick Fanatics) (2026-10-13)
24. Toy Story 5 movie toys (Mattel) (2026-10-18)
25. Disney Store 2026 Toys We Love list (ABC News) (October 2026)
26. LEGO Toy Story theme (LEGO.com) (2026-10-18)
27. New Price Changes for PS5, PS5 Pro, and PlayStation Portal (PlayStation Blog) (2026-03-27)
28. PlayStation Direct PS5 page (2026-10-18)
29. PS5 Pro stock shortage: why is PlayStation 5 sold out? (The Shortcut) (2026-10-12)
30. PlayStation 5 Pro stock shortage to continue into 2027, report (PlayStation LifeStyle) (2026-09-18)
31. GameStop used PS5 Pro pricing and GTA VI (TheStreet) (2026-10-08)
32. Price Revision for Nintendo Switch 2 System (Nintendo) (Effective 2026-09-01)
33. Two new Nintendo Switch 2 bundles (Nintendo) (Autumn 2026)
34. Where to pre-order Zelda Ocarina of Time and the Zelda Switch 2 console (Nintendo Life) (2026-10-15)
35. Zelda 40th Anniversary Switch 2 at Best Buy midnight launch (The Shortcut) (2026-10-09)
36. Open up to new possibilities with iPhone Duo (Apple Newsroom) (2026-10-15)
37. Apple's iPhone Duo is already backordered until 2027 (CBS News) (2026-10-17)
38. Black Friday 2026 dates (koupon.ai) (2026-10-17)
39. Postal Service recommends 2026 holiday mailing and shipping dates (USPS) (2026-09-22)
40. Extended Holiday Returns policy (Amazon Seller Central) (2026-10-18)
41. Walmart holiday return policy 2026 (GeekSeller) (2026-09-01)
42. Why is Sunday shopping prohibited in Wyckoff and Bergen County (Township of Wyckoff) (undated)
43. Judge delays New Jersey blue laws ruling (CoStar) (2026-06-09)
44. Westfield Garden State Plaza opening hours (2026-10-18)
45. New Jersey Sales and Use Tax (NJ Division of Taxation) (accessed 2026-10-18)
46. New Jersey Sales Tax Guide ST-4 (NJ Division of Taxation) (Rev. 07/22)
47. Pop Mart US on Instagram (drop times, profile summary) (2026-10)
48. Mashable via Yahoo Shopping: First Owala holiday drop lands (2026-10-16)